Taking Coin Flips

It is not uncommon for players to be in a position where they have to decide if they want to risk their tournament life in a coin flip situation. When one player has a pair before the flop and their opponent has 2 over cards, both players virtually have an equal chance of winning. Another common coin flip situation occurs when a player has flopped a pair, and their opponent has a flush draw with 2 over cards.

In a cash game, it is fairly easy to decide whether or not to call a large bet in a situation like this. This is simply a matter of calculating pot odds.
In a tournament, this decision has to take several other factors into account. First, a player must measure the risk associated with making a certain call. If your opponentÕs chip stack is only 1/5 the size of yours, it will be easy for you to call the bet. However, if your opponent has enough chips to knock you out of a tournament, it might not be wise to play the hand.

Consider a scenario where you are the chip leader as you are approaching the late stages of a tournament. Directly across the poker table is the player who is ranked second in chips. For the purpose of this example, assume that each of these players has a healthy chip lead over all of their opponents. In this scenario, it would be unwise for either player to enter a coin flip situation for all of their chips.

Even as a slight favorite, there are many players that would elect not to put the rest of their chips into the pot because of the size of their opponentÕs chip stack.

From a statistical standpoint, it would be to a skilled playerÕs advantage if they were able to keep each pot as small as possible. As the size of the pot decreases in relation to a playerÕs chip stack, that player gains the ability to handle the negative chip swings that can occur in poker. By only putting a small percentage of their chip stack at risk, that player is able to survive a greater number of coin flip situations.

With this kind of strategy, a player would have to get unlucky repeatedly in order for them to be knocked out of a tournament. Playing small-pot poker affords a skilled player more opportunities to outplay their opponents, and thus it is more likely that their advantages will be realized.
If you feel that you have an advantage over everyone at the table, it would be foolish to risk all of your chips in a coin flip scenario. There will usually be much better opportunities for a skilled player to utilize their advantages.

A player should also consider their monetary goals when faced with a decision like this. If you have just made your annual trek across the country for a poker tournament, survival should be among your top priorities at the table. This is true for any player that plays part-time or has bought-in for an amount that is far above their typical stakes. To these players, moving up the payout structure a few spots can be very meaningful.
For a professional player who is likely to be playing for many years to come, it seems more reasonable to call large bets in a situation where they have a 50% chance of winning. This is especially true when the pot odds are correct for that player to make the call.

This type of player should be more interested in their long-term results than a part-time player. For these players, it is acceptable to enter coin flip situations for all of their chips because they know that they will occasionally win those hands. When they do win, they will be at a huge chip advantage and their expected value in the tournament will increase.